Field Notes
Forecasts fail when assumptions are not owned.
A forecast can look polished and still be fragile when assumptions, overrides, and business ownership drift.
The visible claim
The forecast has a clean model, charts, and scenarios.
The hidden defect
Nobody owns the assumptions. Overrides are not tracked. Error is not reviewed. The model becomes theater.
What to check
Check drivers, assumptions, overrides, error history, scenario logic, and who is accountable for each input.
The fix
Create an assumption log, error tracker, and monitoring plan. A useful forecast is a workflow, not a spreadsheet artifact.